Three-way moneyline (1X2) and the draw, explained
In soccer the moneyline has three outcomes, not two: home win, draw, away win. The draw changes how the prices look, how much margin the book takes and how the vig comes off. Here is the whole market in one worked example.
Three outcomes, one winner
The three-way moneyline, written 1X2, settles on the score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 1 is the home team, X the draw and 2 the away team. Exactly one of the three wins; the other two lose. A draw is not a push: a bet on either team loses.
Draws happen in roughly a quarter of matches in the major leagues, so a lot of probability sits on X. That is why a solid favorite is often still plus money: a team that wins 45% of the time is a favorite in the match, but an underdog against “anything else”.
Worked example
no-vig probability = (1 / decimal) / (1 / home + 1 / draw + 1 / away)
Any price longer than its no-vig price is positive expected value against that estimate. If another book offers the draw at 3.70, that is better than the no-vig 3.56: 3.70 × 28.06% − 1 ≈ +3.8% expected value. The method is the same as for two-way lines, just with a third outcome. Dividing by the total is the simplest way; on 235,600 soccer matches, the power method was more accurate for 1X2 (see which de-vig method is most accurate).
Do not de-vig two of three
A common mistake is to take the home and away prices alone and remove the vig as if they were a two-way line. That treats the draw as impossible and inflates both teams’ chances: 47.62% and 27.78% de-vigged as a pair become 63.16% and 36.84%, which is the price of draw no bet, not of the three-way moneyline. Always include all three outcomes.
Where the margin hides
Three outcomes give the book three places to take margin, so a three-way market often carries more total overround than a two-way spread at −110 (4.76%). Shopping each of the three prices separately matters: the best home price, the best draw price and the best away price are often at three different books.
The two-way alternatives
- Draw no bet: back a team and get the stake back on a draw. Same as an Asian handicap of 0. See draw no bet.
- Asian handicap: a goal head start (−0.5, −0.25, +1 …) that removes the draw. See Asian handicap explained.
- Double chance: two outcomes in one bet (home or draw, draw or away, either team).
Frequently asked questions
What is a three-way moneyline?
A moneyline with three outcomes: home win, draw and away win (1, X and 2). It is the main soccer market. A bet on either team loses if the match is drawn after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
What happens to a three-way moneyline bet on a draw?
A bet on the draw wins and bets on either team lose. Nothing is refunded. If you want your stake back on a draw, that is draw no bet (an Asian handicap of 0), which pays a shorter price.
How do you remove the vig from a three-way market?
Turn all three prices into implied probabilities, add them up, and divide each one by the total. With 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60 the total is 104.81%, and the no-vig probabilities are 45.43%, 28.06% and 26.50%.
Is the three-way moneyline the same as a two-way moneyline?
No. A two-way soccer moneyline (draw no bet) refunds the stake on a draw; a three-way moneyline loses it. The two are priced differently and must not be compared directly.
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