Implied probability calculator: odds to win probability
Implied probability turns any price into a percentage: the chance of winning that makes the bet break even. It is the common language for comparing odds, spotting the book’s margin and judging value.
The formula
+odds: 100 / (odds + 100) · −odds: |odds| / (|odds| + 100) · decimal: 1 / decimal
Put a price into the converter to get its implied probability (choose “Probability” as the input to go the other way):
Odds converter
- American
- −250
- Decimal
- 1.40
- Fractional
- 2/5
- Implied probability
- 71.43%
- Profit if it wins
- $40.00
- Total return
- $140.00
Break-even win rate
Implied probability is exactly the share of bets you would need to win at that price to break even. At −110 you need to win 52.38% of the time; at +150, 40%. If you believe a side wins more often than its price implies, the price is in your favor.
Finding the book’s margin
Add up the implied probabilities of every outcome. A market with no margin would total 100%; a real one totals more. The excess is the overround, and it is what the book charges. Enter both sides of a line below to see it — and the no-vig probabilities once it is removed.
No-vig calculator
| Side | Price | Implied | No-vig % | No-vig odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Side A | −110 | 52.38% | 50.00% | +100 |
| Side B | −110 | 52.38% | 50.00% | +100 |
- Hold (vig)
- 4.76%
- Implied total
- 104.76%
| Market | Implied total | Overround |
|---|---|---|
| −110 / −110 (standard spread) | 104.76% | 4.76% |
| −115 / −105 | 104.71% | 4.71% |
| −150 / +130 (moneyline) | 103.48% | 3.48% |
| −105 / −105 (reduced juice) | 102.44% | 2.44% |
From implied to no-vig
Implied probability tells you what a price costs; no-vig probability tells you what it is worth. The difference is the edge — positive or negative. Read what no-vig odds are for how the margin is removed, and how to find +EV bets for how the comparison is used.
Check yourself
Question 1 of 2What win probability does a price of −110 imply?
Frequently asked questions
What is implied probability in betting?
Implied probability is the chance of winning that a price represents — the win rate at which a bet at those odds breaks even. −110 implies 52.38%; +200 implies 33.33%.
How do you calculate implied probability from American odds?
For positive odds: 100 / (odds + 100). For negative odds: |odds| / (|odds| + 100). From decimal odds it is simply 1 / decimal.
Why do implied probabilities add up to more than 100%?
Because each price includes the bookmaker’s margin. The amount over 100% is the overround; at −110 / −110 the two sides add up to 104.76%. Removing it gives the no-vig probability.
How do I use implied probability to find value?
Compare the implied probability of a price with your best estimate of the true probability, such as a no-vig price from sharp books. If the true chance is higher than the price implies, the bet has positive expected value.
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