Will the new NFL overtime rule mean more ties?
In 2025 the NFL gave regular-season overtime the playoff rule: both teams get the ball, even if the first one scores a touchdown. It kept the 10-minute clock, and it kept the tie. That combination opens a new way for a game to end level, and the clock math says it should add ties. We ran every overtime since 2012 through it. The short answer: if coaches kick the extra point after answering a touchdown, expect about a third of a tie more a season, roughly 35% more than before. So far they have refused, and the rule has added no ties at all.
What changed in NFL overtime
Owners voted the change through on April 1, 2025, from a proposal by the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles asked for a 15-minute period to go with it; the league kept 10. The rule as it stands for 2025 and 2026:
- Both teams get at least one possession, whatever the first team does with its own.
- If the score is still level after both have had the ball, the next score of any kind wins.
- The period lasts 10 minutes. If it runs out with the score level, the regular-season game is a tie. Playoff games keep playing until someone wins.
Under the old rule (2012–2024) a touchdown on the first possession ended the game. A field goal on it gave the other team one chance to answer, and after that the next score won. Regular-season overtime was cut from 15 minutes to 10 in 2017, for player safety, and that cut is the reason this rule matters for ties.
Why the rule should mean more ties
The new rule changes exactly one kind of game: the one where the first possession goes the distance. From 2017 to 2024 that happened in 23 of 118 overtimes, about 1 in 5. Under the old rule those games ended on the spot. Now the other team gets the ball down seven, and three things work toward a tie:
- The touchdown drive eats the clock. Opening touchdown drives in the 10-minute era used a median of just over four minutes. When the touchdown went in, a median of 5:48 was left, and as little as 2:00.
- The answer eats the rest. A team that needs a touchdown, not a field goal, has to go the length of the field and can’t settle for a kick. Matched against 805 fourth-quarter drives by teams trailing by seven or eight, about 30% of these teams would score the touchdown, and the drive would use most of what was left.
- Sudden death with no time to play it. After an answering touchdown and an extra point, it’s 7–7 in sudden death. With 6:00 left, a tied sudden-death overtime ends with no score about 13% of the time; with 2:00 left, 42%; with 30 seconds, 57%.
The Eagles’ original 15-minute version would have left room to finish. At 10 minutes, a good share of these games reach sudden death with the clock nearly gone. Rich McKay, co-chair of the competition committee, said at the time that the league wants “a win and a loss” but that “everybody got comfortable on the idea that 10 minutes” works.
What has happened since: nobody kicks
There have been 19 regular-season overtimes under the new rule through week 5 of 2026. The first team scored a touchdown in six of them. Four times the other team answered with a touchdown of its own, which is exactly the spot the model counts on, and all four went for two:
| Game | First possession | Answer | Final |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 week 9: Jaguars at Raiders | Jaguars TD | Raiders TD with 0:16 left, went for two and failed | Jaguars 30–29 |
| 2025 week 12: Giants at Lions | Lions TD on the first snap | Giants turned it over on downs | Lions 34–27 |
| 2025 week 13: Broncos at Commanders | Broncos TD | Commanders TD with 2:47 left, went for two and failed | Broncos 27–26 |
| 2025 week 16: Rams at Seahawks | Rams TD | Seahawks TD with 3:13 left, went for two and made it | Seahawks 38–37 |
| 2026 week 1: Saints at Lions | Lions TD | Saints TD with 1:34 left, went for two and failed | Lions 31–30 |
| 2026 week 5: Ravens at Falcons | Ravens TD | Falcons turned it over | Ravens 30–23 |
Going for two makes sense for them. Kicking the extra point buys sudden death in which the other team gets the ball first, often with little time left, so the best outcome is usually a tie. A two-point try wins outright about half the time. The Seahawks went for it with 3:13 left, when a kick would still have left time to play, and won.
Two games have ended tied under the new rule, the Packers and Cowboys at 40 in week 4 of 2025 and the Giants and Commanders at 27 in week 5 of 2026, but neither came from the new path. The first went field goal, field goal, clock out; the second was a missed field goal and a punt before time ran out. Both would have ended level under the old rule as well.
| Seasons | Overtime games | Ties | Ties per overtime | Ties per 272 games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012–2016 (15-minute overtime) | 83 of 1,280 (6.5%) | 5 | 6.0% | 1.1 |
| 2017–2024 (10 minutes, old rule) | 118 of 2,111 (5.6%) | 7 | 5.9% | 0.9 |
| 2025–2026 week 5 (new rule) | 19 of 350 (5.4%) | 2 | 10.5% | too few games |
Ten percent of new-rule overtimes ending in a tie looks like a jump, but two ties in 19 games is well within chance: the old rate predicts about one, the new-rule model about one and a half.
So will there be more ties?
Yes, but how many depends on coaches. The rule creates a real new road to a tie, worth about a third of a tie a season if teams take it. The extra ties scale with the share of answering teams that kick: none so far, so none added. A coach who would rather not lose than risk the two-point try, late in a season with a playoff tiebreaker at stake, is the likeliest first taker. Expect the league to keep around one tie a season, with a second becoming a little more common, not a flood.
What a tie means for your bets
- Moneyline: on a two-way NFL moneyline, US sportsbooks generally grade a tie as a push and refund the stake. A tied leg drops out of a parlay, which then pays at the remaining legs’ price.
- Three-way moneyline: settled on regulation only, with the draw as its own outcome, so overtime does not count at all. See the three-way moneyline guide.
- Spread: a pick’em spread on a tied game is a push. Any other spread is graded as normal on the final score.
- Tie props: even with the new path fully in use, an average game ends tied about 1 time in 220 (0.45%), so a tie has to pay longer than about 220-1 to break even. The best-known tie price, 80-1 on Chargers and Raiders in January 2022, implied 1.2%. At 80-1 a $10 tie bet loses about $6 on average. Close, low-scoring matchups tie more often than average, but not nearly three times as often.
To turn any tie price into the chance it implies, use the implied probability guide.
Data and method
- nflverse play-by-play, regular season 2012 to 2026 week 5 (CC BY 4.0). Overtime, possession results and clock times come from it; every tie and every new-rule overtime above was read from it play by play.
- The answer-drive chances come from fourth-quarter regulation drives by teams trailing by seven or eight, matched to within a minute of the clock left. The sudden-death tie chances come from a fit on 228 tied sudden-death overtime drives since 2012. Uncertainty ranges are from 1,000 bootstrap resamples.
- The model leaves other behavior as it was, such as the first team playing more aggressively now that a field goal is worth less. Samples are small: seven ties under the old rule and four answered touchdowns under the new one.
- Rule details from the clubs’ and league’s summaries of the 2025 and 2026 owners’ meetings; the McKay quotes from the Boston Globe, April 2025.
Frequently asked questions
What is the NFL overtime rule in the regular season?
Since 2025 the regular season uses the playoff rule: both teams are guaranteed a possession, even if the first team scores a touchdown. If the score is still level after both have had the ball, the next score wins. The period is 10 minutes, and unlike the playoffs, a regular-season game still ends in a tie when the clock runs out.
Will the new NFL overtime rule lead to more ties?
It can, through one new path: a touchdown, an answering touchdown and an extra point, followed by sudden death with only a few minutes left. Run through every overtime from 2017 to 2024, that path adds about a third of a tie a season, roughly 35% more ties. So far it has added none, because all four teams that answered an opening touchdown in 2025 and 2026 went for two instead of kicking.
How many NFL games end in a tie?
About one a season. From 2017 to 2024, 118 of 2,111 regular-season games went to overtime and 7 ended tied, about 0.9 ties per 272-game season, or 1 game in 300. Under the new rule there have been 2 ties in 19 overtime games (Packers 40, Cowboys 40 in 2025 and Giants 27, Commanders 27 in 2026), but neither came from the rule change.
What happens to a moneyline bet if an NFL game ends in a tie?
On a standard two-way moneyline, US sportsbooks generally grade a tie as a push and return the stake, and a tied leg drops out of a parlay. A three-way moneyline is different: it is settled on regulation time only, with the tie as its own outcome, so a game tied after 60 minutes loses both team sides even if someone wins in overtime. House rules decide, so check yours.
Is betting on an NFL tie a good bet?
Rarely. Even with the new rule doing the most it can, an average game ends tied about 1 time in 220, so the price has to be longer than about 220-1 to break even. Tie props are usually offered far shorter; the famous one, 80-1 on Chargers and Raiders in January 2022, implied a 1.2% chance, close to three times the real rate.
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