Teaser Calculator: Wong Teasers, Break-Even & EV
Enter each leg’s spread and its no-vig chance to cover, the teaser price and the book’s push rule. The calculator teases every leg on NFL final-margin frequencies and shows the EV, the break-even price and what each leg needs. It opens on an example; live Wong legs at each book are in the teaser finder.
Teaser calculator
Example Two underdogs, +2.5 and +1.5, teased 6 points at −120.
+2.5 / +1.5 → +8.5 / +7.5: needs −112 or better · at −120: Not worth itNeeds −112 or betterEvery leg clears what it needs and the teaser returns at least 1% on the cautious chances.
Not worth it at −120. Both legs fall short of the 73.9% each needs on the cautious chance.
- At −120, per $100 (cautious)
- −$1.58
- Each leg needs
- 73.9%
- All legs win (cautious)
- 53.7%
- Breaks even at (cautious)
- −112
More numbers
- EV per $100 on the model
- +$3.87
- All legs win on the model
- 56.7%
Break-even prices
- Every leg clears its own (vigged’s break-even)
- −112
- Whole teaser’s EV zero, cautious chances
- −115
- Whole teaser’s EV zero, model chances
- −130
How the model works: each leg’s no-vig cover chance is moved from its own number to the teased number with NFL final-margin frequencies (3 and 7 weighted). “Cautious” takes 2 percentage points off an underdog’s win chance and 9 off a favorite’s, as the finder does. One push pays the price with one leg fewer; a teaser cut further, or to one leg, counts as a refund.
What a Wong teaser is
A teaser moves the spread of every leg in your favor by the same number of points, 6 in the classic NFL version, and pays less than a parlay for it. Most of those 6 points are worth little: they move the line through margins that rarely happen. NFL games end on 3 points about 15% of the time and on 7 about 8–9%, far more often than any number near them. A Wong teaser (after Stanford Wong’s Sharp Sports Betting) only teases legs where the 6 points cross both: favorites of −7.5 to −8.5 down to −1.5 to −2.5, and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5. A −7 favorite only reaches a push on 7; a +3 underdog already has the 3.
What each leg needs
Each leg must win often enough that all of them together beat the price. With no pushes and independent legs, that is the price’s implied probability to the power of one over the number of legs:
leg break-even = (1 ÷ decimal price)^(1 ÷ legs) · −120 for 2 legs: (1 ÷ 1.833)^½ = 73.9%
| Legs | Price | Each leg needs |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | −110 | 72.4% |
| −120 | 73.9% | |
| −125 | 74.5% | |
| −130 | 75.2% | |
| −135 | 75.8% | |
| −140 | 76.4% | |
| 3 | +180 | 70.9% |
| +160 | 72.7% | |
| +150 | 73.7% | |
| +140 | 74.7% | |
| 4 | +300 | 70.7% |
| +260 | 72.6% | |
| +240 | 73.6% |
What the history says
We tested every NFL Wong leg from 1999 to week 5 of 2026 against closing lines (nflverse game data). Teased 6 points, from 2015 on (after the extra point moved back), Wong underdogs won 77.4% of the time (508 legs) and Wong favorites 72.5% (262). Favorites have been worse lately: 69.8% from 2021 to 2025. Before 2015 the gap was smaller, and from 2006 to 2014 underdogs won about 74%.
- NFL lines and scores: nflverse (Lee Sharpe) (CC BY 4.0; figures aggregated by vigged)
- College football lines and scores: cfbfastR-data / SportsDataverse (CC BY 4.0; figures aggregated by vigged), from CollegeFootballData.com; 2006–19 lines originally collected from Sportsbook Review.
Read against the needs above, an underdog leg that is a fair coin flip at its own number clears −120 with little to spare and falls short at −130 or worse. A favorite leg rarely clears anything. Wong also favored low totals; since 2015 the data shows no consistent effect of the total, so the calculator ignores it. Same-week legs were close to independent, slightly positively related, which does not hurt a teaser.
Why the price decides everything
Two +2.5 underdogs that are fair coin flips at +2.5, teased to +8.5, win about 74.8% each in the model. At −110 the teaser is worth about 6.8% of the stake on those chances (1.1% on the cautious ones), at −120 about 2.5% (a 2.9% loss on the cautious ones), and at −135 it loses about 2.7% (7.8% on the cautious ones). Books know this. Several raised the 2-leg 6-point price from −120 to −125, −130 or −135, and some price teasers from alternate lines, so a teaser through 3 and 7 costs far more than one that is not. The same legs can be worth a bet at one book and a losing bet at another.
Teaser prices by book
A teaser is flagged only at the book’s own published table or at a price you type from your slip; everything else shows the price it would need. Prices change: confirm the teaser price on your slip.
| Book | Priced | 2 legs | 3 legs | 4 legs | 2-leg push |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings · Published | Fixed table (published by the book) | 2 legs −135 | 3 legs +140 | 4 legs +240 | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
| FanDuel · Reported | Fixed, as reported (no table from the book) | 2 legs −134 | 3 legs +140 | 4 legs +240 | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
| BetMGM · Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 2 legs −130 | 3 legs +160 | 4 legs +250 | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
| Caesars · Reported | Fixed, as reported (no table from the book) | 2 legs −125 | 3 legs +160 | 4 legs — | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
| Hard Rock Bet · Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 2 legs −125 | 3 legs +140 | 4 legs — | Any push refunds a 2-leg teaser |
| theScore Bet · Price varies | Priced by the legs (no table) | 2 legs — | 3 legs — | 4 legs — | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
| Circa Sports · Unconfirmed | Unconfirmed | 2 legs — | 3 legs — | 4 legs — | Push and win refunds; push and loss loses |
6-point prices as of 2026-10-14.
How the finder flags a teaser
- NFL regular season and playoffs only (never preseason: it was not in the backtest, and books price it on other tables), pregame, each book on its own spread, and only prices that are fresh or aging (not stale), not suspended and from a book ranked for your state.
- Every leg must cross both 3 and 7 and sit within 1.5 points of the market’s main number, with a Med or High confidence no-vig price behind it. A book number better than the market’s gets no credit: the leg is valued at the market’s number.
- Favorite legs are shown but never used. Two legs from one game are never combined.
- Flagged only at 6 points, only at a price that is known (the book’s own table, or one you type in from your slip for that size; at books that price by the legs, for that exact teaser), only when each leg clears its own break-even on the cautious chance, and only when the whole teaser is at least +1% on those chances. 6.5- and 7-point teasers show a break-even price only.
- A price you type that beats the book’s own chart by 5 cents or more (a promo tab, a boost) prices only the teaser you type it on, unless you confirm it is the book’s price for every teaser of that size: promo teasers cover the legs they are offered on, with small limits.
See it live in the teaser finder. For two bets on different numbers of the same game, the other way to use key numbers, see what a middle is; to price a leg’s own number, use the no-vig calculator. A teaser is a bet like any other: most lose money at most prices, and none is a sure thing.
Frequently asked questions
What is a Wong teaser?
An NFL 6-point teaser whose legs move through both 3 and 7, the two most common final margins: favorites of −7.5 to −8.5 teased to −1.5 to −2.5, and underdogs of +1.5 to +2.5 teased to +7.5 to +8.5. Stanford Wong described them in Sharp Sports Betting.
What win rate does each leg of a teaser need?
A 2-leg teaser at −110 needs each leg to win about 72.4% of the time; at −120, 73.9%; at −135, 75.8%. A 3-leg teaser at +160 needs 72.7% a leg and at +140, 74.7%. These assume no pushes and independent legs.
Are Wong teasers still profitable?
Only at a good price, and mostly on the underdog side. From 2015 to 2026 Wong underdogs won about 77% of the time and Wong favorites about 72.5%, with favorites much weaker since 2019. Several big books raised the price of a 2-leg 6-point teaser from −120 to −130 or worse, or price teasers from the legs chosen; at those prices most Wong teasers lose money.
Does the game total matter?
Wong recommended low totals, where each point is worth more. In the games since the 2015 extra-point change the backtest found no consistent effect of the total on Wong legs, so vigged does not adjust for it. You can still leave high-total games out in the finder.
What happens if a teaser leg pushes?
At most books the pushed leg is dropped and a 3-leg teaser is paid at the 2-leg price. A 2-leg teaser with a push and a win is usually refunded rather than paid as a single, and a push and a loss usually loses, though some books refund any 2-leg teaser with a push. Half-point Wong legs (−7.5, +2.5) cannot push; −8 and +2 can.
Can I tease college football or the NBA the same way?
The numbers do not hold up. College Wong legs won about 71% from 2006 to 2025, and NBA legs on short spreads teased 4 points fell well short of the 72–74% a standard teaser price needs. vigged’s finder covers the NFL only.
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