EV Calculator: Expected Value of Any Sports Bet in Dollars
Enter the price you can bet and your estimate of the true win probability, as a percent or as no-vig odds. The calculator shows the expected profit and the break-even win rate.
EV calculator
- Expected value
- +$5.00
- EV % of stake
- +5.00%
- Break-even win %
- 47.62%
- No-vig odds
- +100
- Profit if it wins
- $110.00
- Loss if it loses
- −$100.00
+EV: at a true 50.00% chance, this price pays more than it should. Over many bets like it you would expect to make +5.00% of what you stake.
How to use it
- Enter the price you can bet, for example +110.
- Enter the true win probability, or switch to “No-vig odds” and enter the no-vig price, for example +100.
- Read the expected value. Positive means the price beats your estimate; the bigger the number, the bigger the edge.
The math
EV = p × stake × (decimal − 1) − (1 − p) × stake
EV % = p × decimal − 1 · break-even p = 1 / decimal
The +EV page runs this calculation live for every price on the boards against a no-vig price built from several sharp sources. Read how to find +EV bets for the background, and use the Kelly calculator to size a +EV bet.
Frequently asked questions
What is expected value in betting?
Expected value (EV) is what a bet makes or loses on average if you could place it many times: win probability × profit if it wins, minus loss probability × stake. A positive number (+EV) means the price pays more than the true chance deserves.
Where do I get the true win probability?
Nobody knows it exactly. The most common estimate is the no-vig price from a sharp book or a blend of books, which is what vigged shows on every game. Enter that price as “No-vig odds” and the calculator turns it into a probability.
What is a break-even win rate?
The win probability at which a price makes exactly zero on average: its implied probability. −110 breaks even at 52.38%, so a −110 bet is +EV only if it truly wins more often than that.
Does a +EV bet always win?
No. EV is a long-run average. A +EV bet still loses often, and results over a few dozen bets are mostly luck. EV tells you whether the price is good, not whether this bet will win.
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21+ | Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Nothing here is betting advice, and no bet or strategy guarantees a profit. Sports betting is legal only in some US states; check the rules where you are. Responsible gambling.